And then from an overall Fed funds perspective, those expectations are all over the place.

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4595039-ally-financial-inc-ally-q1-2023-earnings-call-transcript?source=feed_all_articles

Fed funds futures are showing roughly 71% odds of the central bank not hiking rates in June now.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside-for-the-dollar-ahead-of-the-nfp-20230602/

From the two-year tenor all the way to 30-year, U.S. yields are below the current Fed funds rate of roughly 4.8 percent as markets have dramatically repriced the rates outlook.

Source: https://business.inquirer.net/393779/bank-relief-and-alibaba-plans-nudge-stocks-higher

Getting the Fed funds rate to 5% would mean only one more rate increase of 25 basis points.

Source: https://investorplace.com/2023/02/the-blistering-start-is-about-to-pause/

In this graphic, GS offers its view of expected Fed funds rate increases compared to what is currently priced in by the market.

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4570735-etf-reliable-portfolio-2022-update-and-2023-investment-outlook?source=feed_all_articles

Money markets have priced in an 86% probability that policymakers will reduce the Fed funds target rate by at least 25 basis points at the conclusion of their March policy meeting, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Source: https://genevatimes.ch/futures-mixed-as-year-end-approaches-rate-cuts-in-focus-by-reuters/

Note in the chart above what doesn’t go crashing to earth in the wake of the banking problems: the Fed funds rate (crimson trendline).

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4615854-bonds-in-wonderland?source=feed_all_articles

Now for our estimates of the impact of increases in rates, given market expectations of more rate hikes to come, we estimate the effects of increases in the Fed funds rate to produce additional annual net interest income as follows.

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4570464-interactive-brokers-group-inc-ibkr-q4-2022-earnings-call-transcript?source=feed_all_articles

Paul Volcker proved that four decades ago when he pushed the real Fed funds rate north of 8.0% before he finally broke the inflationary momentum.

Source: https://www.lewrockwell.com/2023/05/david-stockman/why-grandma-yellen-must-be-forced-to-prioritize-spending/

Prior to the speech, Fed funds futures implied around an 80 percent chance of a pause in September.

Source: https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2023/08/25/powell-warns-we-are-prepared-to-raise-rates-further/

Should the Fed start to ease in mid-2024, as the Fed funds futures market is forecasting, stocks are currently sitting in the sweet spot of the cycle.

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4653077-reading-the-macro-tea-leaves-a-good-setup-for-markets?source=feed_all_articles

The messaging is consistent with the prevailing view seen in Fed funds futures, that the Fed only has one more rate hike to go in May before pausing in June.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-bostic-recent-developments-are-consistent-with-us-hiking-one-more-time-20230414/

We felt it necessary to fix this $1 billion of FHLB advances for a term to ensure that we took off the table some substantially higher level of Fed funds.

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4573614-homestreet-inc-hmst-q4-2022-earnings-call-transcript?source=feed_all_articles

Year-over-year, the average Fed funds rates has increased 359 basis points, driving up the interest earned on our variable rate assets.

Source: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569826-bank-of-america-corporation-bac-q4-2022-earnings-call-transcript?source=feed_all_articles